Security Echelon Estimates : US Strike Won’t Necessarily Lead To Attack On Israel
Israel’s security establishment assesses that even if a US strike in Iran takes place, there is no certainty that Iran will respond with direct fire at Israel, Kan Reshet Bet reported.
According to the report, Iran understands that firing at Israel would lead Israel to respond, escalating the regional conflict.
However, Israel is taking no risks, and preparations continue at the highest level, accounting for possible retaliatory fire from Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The security establishment believes that if a US decision is made to act in Iran, Israel will receive early warning, allowing for appropriate preparations on the home front.
The Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has been holding regular situational assessments with senior IDF officials and security authorities in light of regional developments and the possibility of escalation.
As a result, the air defense system has been reinforced across the country, and the Air Force is on high alert for scenarios involving missile fire, UAV attacks, and cyber attacks against the Israeli home front.
On Wednesday night (14th), IDF Spokesperson, Gen. Effie Defrin issued a statement reading, “I am aware of the reports over the past day, and especially in recent hours, and I wish to clarify, the IDF is closely monitoring developments. In recent days the Chief of Staff has been conducting ongoing situation assessments. We are maintaining full oversight and are prepared for any development. The Chief of Staff has instructed to strengthen defensive readiness across all units.”
He emphasized “I reiterate my request: Rely only on official IDF statements and refrain from spreading rumors that could cause public concern. At this stage, there is no change in the Home Front defense policy. The IDF is prepared and will continue to act responsibly to protect the security of the citizens of the State of Israel. I will provide updates should any changes be required.”
After Rafah Clash, IDF Warns Hamas Attacks Likely To Continue
The military assessed Wednesday (14th) that a deadly clash a day earlier near Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip was unlikely to be the last attempt by Hamas terrorists to attack troops along the so-called Yellow Line, despite an ongoing ceasefire.
The assessment came hours before US President Donald Trump was expected to announce a move to the second phase of an agreement with Hamas, even without the return of the body of slain hostage Ran Gvili.
Six armed Hamas terrorists were killed Tuesday (13th) after opening fire on forces operating in the area, the military said. The terrorists crossed the Yellow Line separating parts of southern Gaza near Khan Younis and Rafah, apparently intending to carry out a coordinated attack involving gunfire and explosive devices.
“We scrambled from the outpost and deployed tanks that shelled the terrorists’ position,” said Capt. A., a company commander from the 82nd Battalion who led the operation. “We didn’t leave the area until we made sure it ended six to zero in our favor. They fired small arms, but they were equipped and carrying packs. Our soldiers were sharp and aggressive under fire.”
The terrorists were detected by surveillance units, which dispatched an armored force to the scene. The Hamas cell returned fire, lightly wounding two soldiers with shrapnel, according to the military. After about an hour of fighting, during which forces sealed off the area with heavy fire to prevent a wider incident, all six terrorists were killed.
Capt. A.said some of his soldiers are relatively inexperienced, having been drafted late in the war, requiring constant vigilance even during periods that appear quiet.
“What keeps the soldiers alert is the sense that they are preventing the next disaster, and because of them communities near the Gaza border sleep peacefully at night,” he said, adding that troops regularly train for more complex scenarios than those encountered in the incident.
Most daily activity in the sector, he said, focuses on clearing remaining Hamas tunnels on the military controlled side of the Yellow Line.
The military said it has not ruled out the possibility that additional terrorists escaped during the incident, and is examining whether undiscovered tunnels were used. The terrorists reached within several hundred meters of a military outpost but failed to carry out their planned attack.
The incident was described by the military as a “blatant violation” of the ceasefire. No retaliatory strike had been launched as of Wednesday evening (14th).
Hezbollah Warns Beirut That Exbanded Disarmament Push Could Cause ‘Chaos, Civil War’
Lebanon has pledged to bring all arms in the country under state control, in line with a 2024 agreement that ended a devastating war between Hezbollah and Israel, and Beirut’s foreign minister admitted Tuesday (13th) that the deal permits Israel to continue striking in the country as long as the Iran-backed group refuses to give up its arms.
Hezbollah insists that its deal only applies to the southernmost region of Lebanon that borders Israel and has refused to relinquish its arsenal elsewhere.
In an interview with Russian state media outlet RT, senior Hezbollah political official Mahmoud Qmati said pursuing a state monopoly on arms further north would be “the biggest crime committed by the state.”
“The path taken by the Lebanese government and state institutions will lead Lebanon to instability, chaos and perhaps even civil war,” Qmati said, though he added that Hezbollah would not be dragged into a confrontation with Lebanon’s army.
The Lebanese government claimed last week to have disarmed Hezbollah south of the Litani River – around 20 miles from the Israeli border – in line with the deadline it had set for itself, saying it had “achieved the objectives of the first phase” of its plan in an “effective and tangible way.”
It said it had extended operational control over the south, except for the handful of areas still controlled by Israeli troops. Hezbollah, which has rejected efforts to disarm, did not immediately comment.
Israel sounded a cautious note on the announcement, saying the efforts from Beirut to disarm the terror group were “encouraging” but insufficient, and adding in a second statement that “Hezbollah is rearming faster than it is being disarmed.”
Hezbollah has said that Israeli troops must withdraw from the hilltop positions they still hold in southern Lebanon, halt near-daily airstrikes on Lebanon, and release detained Lebanese before any further disarmament is discussed.
“There will be no talk or dialogue about any situation north of the Litani River before Israel withdraws from all Lebanese territory, liberates the south and the prisoners, and stops its violations against Lebanon,” said Qmati.
While Hezbollah considers Israel’s frequent strikes in Lebanon to be a violation of the ceasefire, Lebanese Foreign MInister Youssef Rajji on Tuesday (13th) disputed this, saying that the agreement allows for Israeli strikes as long as Hezbollah continues to hold onto its arms.
“The ceasefire agreement stipulates that the Lebanese government will disarm Hezbollah,” Rajji said in an interview with Sky News Arabia. “As long as Hezbollah still holds weapons, Israel regrettably, has the right to continue its attacks against them.”
Rajji’s comments appeared to be the first admission from a Lebanese government official that Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah targets in the country are approved by Beirut.
Since the ceasefire, the IDF has killed around 400 operatives and struck hundreds of additional Hezbollah-linked targets. The IDF has repeatedly asserted that the activity at the targeted sites constitutes a violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon.
The conflict began on October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah started firing rockets and drones at northern Israel, one day after its fellow Iran-backed terror group Hamas launched a shock assault on southern Israel, sparking the war in Gaza.
Doctors In Iran: ‘Shooting At Protesters Is Aimed To Kill’
Several doctors from hospitals in Tehran were interviewed secretly by The Guardian and reported that hospital teams are overwhelmed with injured patients, with most suffering from gunshot wounds to the eyes and head.
An ophthalmologist at one of the hospitals in Tehran told The Guardian that he documented over 400 gunshot injuries to the eyes at his hospital, while other doctors confirmed that protesters were intentionally shot in the eyes and head.
One doctor from Tehran stated that regime forces “are deliberately shooting at the head and the eyes. They want to damage the head and the eyes so they can no longer see, the same thing they did in 2022.” He stated that the eyes of many patients could not be saved and the victims were permanently blinded.
Another doctor told The Guardian that hospital teams are collapsing due to the lack of equipment and blood supplies to treat the influx of injured people coming to the hospitals in the city, saying, “It’s like in the war movies where you see the injured soldiers getting treated on the open field. We don’t have blood, we don’t have enough medical supplies. It’s like a war zone.”
One of his colleagues detailed how he treated injured protesters on the ground in open spaces and freezing temperatures due to a lack of space in the hospital departments. The doctors mentioned that the shutdown of internet and communication networks makes their work very difficult, and that security forces also come to the hospitals to arrest injured protesters.
“My colleagues are very distressed, tired and horrified. They are breaking down in tears.” One colleague, a doctor, was wounded while traveling to the hospital, after being shot by authorities,” the doctor shared.
He added, “Eyes were hit by birdshot pellets and it was deliberate, they are shooting to kill,” and recalled one patient whose body was riddled with 20 bullets.
Iran International reported on Tuesday (13th) that it has concluded, following what it described as an extensive verification process, that at least 12,000 people were killed so far during the ongoing protests in Iran, mainly over two consecutive nights.
According to Iran International, the assessment was reached after reviewing overlapping accounts and evidence from multiple sources, including individuals described as close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and the presidential office, as well as reports from members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in several cities. The outlet also cited testimony from eyewitnesses, families of those killed, medical staff, and information linked to hospitals.
The report states that the killings occurred largely on Thursday (8th) and Friday (9th), identified as the deadliest period, and characterizes the events as unprecedented in scale, geographic spread, and level of violence in Iran’s contemporary history. Iran International said those killed were mostly civilians and that many were under the age of 30.
Iran International further reported that based on information it received, the deaths were primarily caused by forces affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij. The outlet asserted that the operation was organized and carried out following directives from Iran’s highest leadership, with the involvement of senior state institutions.
US President Donald Trump warned on Tuesday night (13th) that the United States is prepared to “take very strong action” if Iran begins hanging anti-government protesters.
The President noted he is aware that a “pretty substantial number” of demonstrators have already been killed during more than two weeks of unrest.
Trump repeated that “there is a lot of help on the way” for the Iranian people, saying assistance is being offered in “different forms,” including economic support. He referenced last year’s US airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities but did not provide additional details.
Asked about his end goal for Iran, the President responded: “The end game is to win. I like winning.”
Iran Cracks Down: Where Are The Western Protests? – Gerard Baker
As the people of Iran brave another intensifying crackdown by their rulers in one of the world’s most repressive regimes, where are the protests in the West? Where are all those defenders of persecuted Muslims who have been so active on the streets of New York, London, Sydney, Rome and elsewhere the past two years? Where are the demands for justice and freedom for the downtrodden victims of a brutally repressive state?
More than three million Iranians have been driven from their homeland in the 47 years of the mullahs’ rule. People have been forced into prisons or into exile in foreign lands, their homes and property stolen, their loved ones punished and frequently murdered.
Where are the movie stars and pop icons with their video pleas for justice? Where is the International Criminal Court’s crack team of lawyers to investigate crimes against humanity and issue indictments against Al Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, as they did for Benjamin Netanyahu?
In the UK, there has been criticism that the BBC has been playing down or even ignoring the dramatic events in Iran. BBC News world affairs editor John Simpson noted how difficult it is to get accurate and reliable information given the reporting conditions in the country. Yet in Gaza, the scarcity of reliable information didn’t stop the BBC from broadcasting daily for two years the most lurid accounts of the Israel offensive there – much of it pure Hamas lies.
Perhaps the reason so many protesters condemn Israel for its legitimate actions and give Iran a pass for its illegitimate ones is that, unlike Israel, Iran isn’t run by Jews.
(wsj.com)
How International Law Has Been Weaponized Against Israel – Melanie Phillips
The UN Human Rights Office has issued a report detailing what it calls Israel’s “systemic discrimination against Palestinians in the disputed territories of Judea and Samaria, as well as eastern Jerusalem. It ignores the fact that every restriction on the Arabs living in the “West Bank” is imposed by Israel only to prevent the murderous terrorist attacks that the Arabs living there perpetrate against Israeli civilians almost every day.
International law has become an overarching and unchallengeable political instrument to govern the world in the way the West tells itself it should be run. Yet international law didn’t stop Russian President Vladimir Putin when he invaded Georgia, annexed Crimea and marched into Ukraine. It didn’t stop Syria’s former president, Bashar Assad, from butchering half a million of his fellow citizens, not Iran’s Islamic regime from waging a terrorist war on the West for the past half-century.
A key reason why so well-meaning people hate Israel is that they believe every word uttered by the humanitarian nexus of the UN, international courts and NGOs. Because international law has turned against Israel, the Jewish state is widely believed to stand for illegality and evil. Not only is this as false as it is revolting, but international law is itself built on sand.
Certainly, the rule of law is essential to a civilized society. But that involves laws passed within the jurisdiction of a democratic nation and that are therefore rooted in the consent of the people. International law, rooted instead in agreements between states, is essentially politics by other means. As a result, it has become weaponized as “lawfare” by people with a malign agenda against Israel.
International law isn’t the pathway to a fairer and more civilized world. In its ferocious weaponization against Israel, it has been turned into the negation of justice and the legal instrument of evil.
The writer is a columnist for the Times-UK.
(jns.org)
